中国建筑能耗研究报告-EF-G-1509-23800

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  • 标签:建筑终端能耗,建筑终端能耗支撑,发布体系,建筑能耗
项目概述:
本项目为中国建筑节能协会(CABEE)定期发布建筑终端能耗数据构建支撑体系,包
括:建筑终端能耗计算方法支撑、数据来源支撑、数据审核与发布支撑三大支撑体系,以提
CABEE 数据的科学性、公信力和影响力,为各级政府建筑节能工作提供方法学及基础数
据。
Project Discription
For CABEE regularly publish the data of CBEEM to construct supporting system, including:
the Calculation method supporting system of CBEEM, data sources system of CBEEM, data review
and release system of CBEEM in order to improve the scientific, public trust and influence of the
data of CABEE and provide methodology and basic data for government building energy efficiency
work at all levels.
建筑节能被认为是中国实现 2030 年碳减排目标的关键领域。“十一五”以来中国建筑
节能在法规制度、激励政策、标准体系、技术进步、产业支撑等方面均取得了长足进展,新
建建筑节能、既有建筑节能改造、可再生能源规模化应用、绿色建筑推广等专项工作成效显
著。然而,建筑节能数据量化这一基础性工作存在明显短板,关于中国建筑能源消费量至今
尚无权威统计数据。在当前碳排放总量控制阶段,建筑能耗数据缺乏对中国建筑节能事业发
展的制约作用日益突出。
本项目研究从分析不同机构建筑能耗测算数据差异原因入手,对建筑能耗概念范围、能
源统计口径进行了界定,并对各类测算方法优缺点进行了比较分析。通过梳理与分析统计年
鉴相关统计指标与数据,提出了基于统计年鉴的建筑能耗及面积计算方法,据此计算并分析
2001-2014 年中国建筑能耗数据,提出了夯实中国建筑能耗数据基础的相关建议。主要内
容及结论如下:
1)不同机构关于建筑能耗的测算数据差异及原因。当前不同机构或学者对中国建筑
能耗测算差异巨大,关于中国建筑能耗占全国能源消费比重的测算数据分布在 15-50%超大
区间之内。三方面原因导致了测算数据差异:①建筑能耗概念范围的界定,建筑能耗一般指
建筑运行能耗,而部分机构将建筑施工或建材生产能耗算入其中。②能源统计口径,主要体
现在电力折算标准煤方法的选择上,发电煤耗法和电热当量法两者折算系数相差 2 倍以上。
另外,是否包含农村非商品能源也会给测算数据带来较大差异。③测算方法的选择,当前关
于建筑能耗测算方法主要包括:统计年鉴拆分法、能耗强度法和终端能耗模型法,不同方法
计算公式、数据来源差异巨大。
2)统计年鉴中建筑面积指标存在的问题及处理方法。主要问题包括:时间序列数据
不完整、统计口径发生变化、部分指标数据缺乏。基于统计年鉴的建筑面积数据处理方法:
①农村建筑面积,根据农村人口和人均居住建筑面积计算得到。②城镇居住建筑面积2001-
2006 年数据以统计年鉴中“城镇年末实有住宅建筑面积”为准,其余年份的缺失数据根据
模糊神经网络拟合得到。③公共建筑面积,包含城镇公建和村镇公建两大块,城镇公建面积
根据公建逐年累计竣工量等因素并利用模糊神经网络计算得到;村镇公建面积以统计年鉴中
“村镇公共建筑面积”为准,部分年份的缺失数据利用线性拟合得到。
3)统计年鉴中建筑能耗相关指标存在的问题及处理方法。主要问题在于中国能源统
计体系是以行业统计为主,导致建筑和交通能耗被分散到各个行业之中。基于统计年鉴的建
筑能耗数据处理方法:中国能源平衡表中“批发零售餐饮业”、“其他”和“生活消费”
三项能耗构成建筑能耗的主体;但需要扣除其中包含的相关企业和私人交通工具能耗,扣
除方法为:公建(包含“批发零售餐饮业”和“其他”两项)扣除 95%的汽油和 35%的柴油,居建(生活消费)扣除 100%的汽油和 95%的柴油;建筑集中采暖能耗数据偏低,根据中
国统计年鉴中城市集中供热情况表中的“供热总量”数据进行修正;“工业”、“交通运
输、仓储和邮政业”等行业能源消费中包含的部分建筑能耗,该部分建筑能耗根据交通运输
业建筑用电作为主要测算依据,交通运输业建筑用电=交通运输业用电-交通工具用电。
4)建筑能耗现状及趋势分析。2014 年,中国建筑能源消费总量为 8.14 亿吨标准煤,
占全国能源消费总量的 19.12%。从 2001-2014 年的变化趋势看,我国建筑能耗呈现持续增
长趋势,但年均增速从“十五”期间的 12%,下降到“十一五”、“十二五”的 6%,增速
下降 50%;建筑能耗占全国能源消费总量的比重在 17%-21%区间内波动,其原因由 GDP
速的波动引起;公共建筑单位面积能耗阶段性变化特点明显,“十五”期间逐年增长,“十
一五”期间基本保持稳定,“十二五”期间则出现下降趋势;城镇居住建筑和北方地区集中
供暖单位面积能耗保持逐年下降趋势,而农村居住建筑单位面积能耗则保持较快的增速。数
据表明,“十一五”以来我国建筑节能工作成效显著,有效抑制了建筑能耗的增长速度。
5)相关政策建议。建议加快完善我国建筑能耗统计制度,夯实建筑节能数据基础,
构建建筑节能大数据平台,制定出台基于“数据驱动”的建筑节能政策体系,推动实施我国
建筑碳排放总量控制战略。
(1) the reason for differences in building energy consumption data.the building
energy consumption account for 15%~50% of the total energy consumption.there are
three reasons for the differences.One is the boundary for building energy
consumption.building energy consumption is defined as the operation energy
consumption of buildings,however,operational energy constitutes a relatively larger
proportion of a building’s total life cycle energy,such as implentment and building
materials. Two is boundary for energy statistics. The result of using power generation
coal consumption coefficient is double than using electric equivalent method.in
addition,whether the inclusion of rural biomass will also bring large differences.The
finally one is calculation method.the calculation method of building method
including :statistical yearbook method,energy efficiency method and end-use energy
model.there is a big difference between different methods and data sources.
(2) Problems and treatment methods of building area index inStatistical
VYearbook. The main problems include: time series data is not complete, statistical
definition changes, some index data is lacking. The data processing methods of building
area based on the statistical yearbook are: 1) Rural building area, which is calculated
by the rural population and per capita living building area; 2) Urban living
construction area, the data of 2001-2006 are based on the actual living building area
at the end of the year in the statistical yearbook, and the missing data of the remaining
years are obtained from the fuzzy neural network fitting. 3) Public building area,
which includes urban public building and village public building. The urban public
building area is calculated from the use of the fuzzy neural network and the factors such
as the yearly accumulative amount of the public building. The village public building
area is based on the "village public building area " in statistical yearbook, and the
missing data is obtained from linear fitting.
(3) Problems and treatment methods of building energy consumption index
in statistical yearbook. The main problem is that China's energy statistics system is
based on industry statistics, which leads to the construction and transportation energy
consumption being dispersed to various industries. The data processing methods of
building energy consumption based on the statistical yearbook are: 1) The main body
of building energy consumption, which is composed of " wholesale, retail and catering
", "others" and "living consumption" in China's energy balance table; 2) The energy
consumption of the related enterprises and private vehicles should be deducted. The
deduction method is: The public building (Including " wholesale, retail and catering "
and "others") needs to be deducted 95% of the gasoline and 35% of diesel, while the
living building (including "living consumption") needs to be deducted 100% of gasoline
and 95% of diesel. 3) The central heating data of building energy consumption is low,
which can be amended by the "total heating" data of urban central heating table in China
Statistical Yearbook. 4) Energy consumption of buildings, such as "industry",
"transportation, warehousing industry and postal services", etc. This part of the building
energy consumption is mainly based on the building electricity of transportation
industry, and the building electricity of transportation industry is equal to electricity for
transportation minus electricity for vehicles.
(4)Analysis of current situation and trend of building energy consumption.In
2014, China's total building energy consumption was 814 million tce, accounting for
19.12% of the country's total energy consumption. China's building energy
consumption showed a sustained growth trend from 2001 to 2014, but the average
VIannual growth rate dropped from 12% in the Tenth Five-Year Plan period to 6% in the
Eleventh Five-Year Plan and the Twelfth Five-Year Plan , Growth rate decreased by
50%; Building energy consumption accounts for the proportion of the total energy
consumption fluctuate in the range of 17% -21%, the reason was caused by the
fluctuation of GDP growth; The change of unit area energy consumption of public
buildings in different phases is obvious.During the Tenth Five-Year Plan period, the
energy consumption increased year by year. During the Eleventh Five-Year Plan period,
the energy consumption was basically stable and declined during the Twelfth Five-Year
Plan.The unit area energy consumption of urban residential buildings and central
heating in northern areas maintain a downward trend, while the unit area energy
consumption of rural residential building keep rapid growth.The data show that the
work of China's building energy efficiency achieved outstanding effects since the
Eleventh Five-Year Plan, inhibiting the growth rate of building energy consumption
effectively.
(5) Related policy recommendations. Accelerating the perfection of China's
building energy consumption statistical system, consolidating the data base of building
energy conservation, build a large data platform for building energy conservation,
formulating a building energy saving policy system base on “ data driven”, and
promote the implementation of China's total carbon emission control strategy.